THE COUNTERINSURGENCY STRATEGY AND BOKO HARAM

THE  COUNTERINSURGENCY STRATEGY AND BOKO HARAM

By OSA

Have you ever asked yourself what Nigeria's counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy is? In my interactions with soldiers, government officials, victims, and aid workers involved in the Boko Haram war, there is a simple retort: "that information should be classified". Bloody civilians are not privy to such information.

No insurgency in the history of the 20th and 21st century has ever been won this way. Not one.

From my understanding of the war, Nigeria's broad COIN is to outkill Boko Haram. This is simplistic use of brute force. Military spendings from 2011 to 2015 shows that Nigeria spent $16.382 billion on defence, but made little progress against Boko Haram. In fact, when military spendings were plotted against number of Boko Haram inflicted death, I found that the more we spent, the more deaths we recorded. The more we spent, the more Boko Haram progressed.

Boko Haram's ideology may not be too clear, or may be seen as "a mishmash of opportunism" as Cameron Duodu suggest, but we cannot deny the fact that there is an ideology and  you can't kill an ideology with simple military force; for every terrorist killed, more fuel is added to the insurgent's ideology tank for revenge. Or how do you kill the terrorism that looks down the barrel of your gun and sees paradise.

Until we have a strategy that includes force and counter-ideology, we would continue to lose money, arms, gallant soldiers, and the war itself.

Of all the irregular warfares in the two centuries under review, the closest to the Boko Haram war, in my opinion, is the Malayan War of 1948 to 1960. This same war has been adjudged by many scholars and military experts as the classic counterinsurgency success for the British government, and a template, by which many other counterinsurgencies are executed or/and judged.

This war lasted 12 years! In the first two years, the British army was doing exactly what the Nigerian army has been doing with Boko Haram in the past nine years — exerting military force, and attempting to outkill insurgents.

Like Boko Haram, the Malayan Races Liberation Army (MRLA) had a better understanding of the geography and extreme temperatures, and used it as a complimentary weapon against the army; they had the sympathy of the population; and the necessary disappearance and operational agility.

MRLA avoided open battle but preferred ambushes, and fled along known jungle trails whenever engaged. This made it extremely difficult for the British forces to ascertain whether the enemy had been eliminated or simply melted away to return at a later date.

Same case as Boko Haram: A soldier who was raised in southern Nigeria is sent to Kagoro, Kala Balge, or Sambisa to fight insurgents who were raised in the region. Insurgents who know every nook and cranny of these forests, they use the terrain — which is the soldier's blind spot — as a weapon. They lay an ambush, and kill soldiers for fun.

During the Malayan war, security forces conducted sweeps, destroying residences from which insurgents were perceived to have received some sort of support, and due to distrust, the British army often shot innocent civilians they found running away — so is the case with the Nigerian army. This made the people more sympathetic to the insurgents and made intel gathering next to impossible.

After two years of defeat, Field Marshal Montgomery wrote in 1951, a clear plan of action and a fit-for-purpose man to execute the plan was needed for victory in the Malayan war: "We must have a plan. Secondly, we must have a man. When we have a plan and a man, we shall succeed: not otherwise".

After losing in our early years, Nigeria in 2014 also hatched a plan; the National Counter Terrorism Strategy (NACTEST), which was updated in 2016. Are you hearing this for the first time? I thought so too.

NACTEST as a COIN plan is ambiguous; has no designated lead ministry or agency, has no clear-cut coordination plan. The strategy as a whole is domiciled under the office of the national security adviser (NSA), who has no statutory role, rather than just advising the president. He does not have the power to fully implement the strategy as Templer did with British COIN in Malaya. The NSA has simply asked all ministries to open counterterrorism desks. Desks!

Time and chance will not permit me to discuss the French and American COIN in details, but there are immense lessons, highlighting the fact that Nigeria cannot defeat Boko Haram this way. 

To defeat a rag-tag fighting force like Boko Haram or ISWAP, we need to go back to 1994 and listen to UNDP: "The battle of peace has to be fought on two fronts. The first is the security front where victory spells out freedom from fear. The second is the economic and social front where victory means freedom from want".

Nigeria needs civil-military operations that ensure we win the sympathy of the population, an understanding of the fighting terrain, economic liberty for those who are potential Boko Haram recruits, and then some sheer military force. This cannot be achieved in a hurry, the earlier, the better

Why Nigeria Will NOT Defeat Boko Haram In 20 Years' By Mayowa Tijani

Voxnews Op-d / 8 hours ago

by Mayowa Tijani


This is a personal journey: Before I left for the United Kingdom in September 2017, I promised myself that my master degree was not going to be just another one. I said to myself that this one will be one that equips me to help Nigeria in her walk and work towards development.

In my written goal for the programme, I wrote that this degree will equip me to help Nigeria "as the country inches her way out of the claws of Boko Haram, an extremist group in the northeast," by "working with development partners from across the world, who are focused on redeveloping the northeast region in the fastest possible time".

As a brief background, I have worked on a few journalistic projects dealing with insurgency in the northeast, with the last being about the attack on civilian refugee camps in Rann , the northmost town in Nigeria, where over 126 people were killed. On arrival at the University of Sussex, the world's best school for development studies , ahead of Harvard and Oxford, I was keenly looking for module choices that could help me address the problems I saw first hand in the northeast.

After learning about hands-on media tools, critical perspectives to development and social change, and other media-related issues, I wanted to learn more about insurgencies and how the mind of a terrorist works.

I enrolled with the School of Global Studies to take a course in irregular warfare, and learn more about the mind of an insurgent. I did not bargain for what I got. Long story cut short, I studied all irregular warfares in the 20th and 21st century.

From my experience as a journalist, who has reported the war in the northeast, and my study of irregular warfares across the world, I wrote what I consider a fascinating paper on how Nigeria can defeat Boko Haram. The paper will be made available when published.

The rest of this column this week will share a few insights from the paper, and why I think we cannot defeat Boko Haram in the next 20 years if we continue on this path.


WHAT IS NIGERIA'S COUNTERINSURGENCY STRATEGY?

Have you ever asked yourself what Nigeria's counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy is? In my interactions with soldiers, government officials, victims, and aid workers involved in the Boko Haram war, there is a simple retort: "that information should be classified". Bloody civilians are not privy to such information.
No insurgency in the history of the 20th and 21st century has ever been won this way. Not one.

Broad COIN strategies are known, and are prosecuted with the support of the citizens. The fine details are what the military keeps as classified. To win any irregular warfare, you need "the population" on your side. The population in this sense are those people, whom the government has a responsibility to protect and whom Boko Haram uses as a weapon against the state. They are the victims of the war.

From my understanding of the war, Nigeria's broad COIN is to outkill Boko Haram. This is simplistic use of brute force. Military spendings from 2011 to 2015 shows that Nigeria spent $16.382 billion on defence, but made little progress against Boko Haram. In fact, when military spendings were plotted against number of Boko Haram inflicted death, I found that the more we spent, the more deaths we recorded. The more we spent, the more Boko Haram progressed.

Boko Haram knows that we want to outkill them, so they use classic irregular warfare tactics to outmaneuver the military and lead the ill-equipped Nigerian forces into numerous ambushments.

Boko Haram's ideology may not be too clear, or may be seen as "a mishmash of opportunism" as Cameron Duodu suggest, but we cannot deny the fact that there is an ideology. And you can't kill an ideology with simple military force; for every terrorist killed, more fuel is added to the insurgent's ideology tank for revenge. Or how do you kill the terrorism that looks down the barrel of your gun and sees paradise?
Until we have a strategy that includes force and counter-ideology, we would continue to lose money, arms, gallant soldiers, and the war itself.


FEW LESSONS FROM OTHER WARS

Of all the irregular warfares in the two centuries under review, the closest to the Boko Haram war, in my opinion, is the Malayan War of 1948 to 1960. This same war has been adjudged by many scholars and military experts as the classic counterinsurgency success for the British government, and a template, by which many other counterinsurgencies are executed or/and judged.

This war lasted 12 years! In the first two years, the British army was doing exactly what the Nigerian army has been doing with Boko Haram in the past nine years — exerting military force, and attempting to outkill insurgents.

Like Boko Haram, the Malayan Races Liberation Army (MRLA) had a better understanding of the geography and extreme temperatures, and used it as a complimentary weapon against the army; they had the sympathy of the population; and the necessary disappearance and operational agility.

MRLA avoided open battle but preferred ambushes, and fled along known jungle trails whenever engaged. This made it extremely difficult for the British forces to ascertain whether the enemy had been eliminated or simply melted away to return at a later date.

Same case as Boko Haram: A soldier who was raised in southern Nigeria is sent to Kagoro, Kala Balge, or Sambisa to fight insurgents who were raised in the region. Insurgents who know every nook and cranny of these forests, they use the terrain — which is the soldier's blind spot — as a weapon. They lay an ambush, and kill soldiers for fun.

During the Malayan war, security forces conducted sweeps, destroying residences from which insurgents were perceived to have received some sort of support, and due to distrust, the British army often shot innocent civilians they found running away — so is the case with the Nigerian army. This made the people more sympathetic to the insurgents and made intel gathering next to impossible.

After two years of defeat, Field Marshal Montgomery wrote in 1951, a clear plan of action and a fit-for-purpose man to execute the plan was needed for victory in the Malayan war: "We must have a plan. Secondly, we must have a man. When we have a plan and a man, we shall succeed: not otherwise".

By 1952, the Brits yielded to Montgomery and hatched a civil-military plan, led by General Gerald Templer, and prosecuted the plan for the next eight years, leading to the end of the insurgents.

After losing in our early years, Nigeria in 2014 also hatched a plan; the National Counter Terrorism Strategy (NACTEST), which was updated in 2016. Are you hearing this for the first time? I thought so too.

NACTEST as a COIN plan is ambiguous; has no designated lead ministry or agency, has no clear-cut coordination plan. The strategy as a whole is domiciled under the office of the national security adviser (NSA), who has no statutory role, rather than just advising the president. He does not have the power to fully implement the strategy as Templer did with British COIN in Malaya. The NSA has simply asked all ministries to open counterterrorism desks. Desks!
Time and chance will not permit me to discuss the French and American COIN in details, but there are immense lessons, highlighting the fact that Nigeria cannot defeat Boko Haram this way. 

To defeat a rag-tag fighting force like Boko Haram or ISWAP, we need to go back to 1994 and listen to UNDP: "The battle of peace has to be fought on two fronts. The first is the security front where victory spells out freedom from fear. The second is the economic and social front where victory means freedom from want".

Nigeria needs civil-military operations that ensure we win the sympathy of the population, an understanding of the fighting terrain, economic liberty for those who are potential Boko Haram recruits, and then some sheer military force. This cannot be achieved in a hurry, the earlier, the better

As Nigeria struggles with N30,000, South Africa increases minimum wage to N126,480

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa / AFP PHOTO / RODGER BOSCH

South Africa has increased its minimum wage to N126,480 per month. The news is coming at a time Nigerian workers are uncertain their struggle for a N30, 000 minimum wage would yield result.

The Global Wage Report 2018/19 released yesterday reveals that the world's wage growth also hit a 10-year low, the last of its kind being in 2007.

President of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa said the wage, which would come into effect January 1, 2019, would benefit about six million workers that currently earn R3,700 (N97,495)

One South African Rand exchanges for N26.35. This means South African workers would be earning N527 per hour: N4,216 per day and N126,480 per month. Their Nigerian counterparts currently earn N75 per hour, which is N600 per day (at eight working hours per day) and N18,000 per month.

Paid N30,000 as minimum wage, Nigerian workers would be earning N125 per hour or N1,000 per day, which amounts to N30,000 monthly.

Compared, a Nigerian worker would be earning less than a quarter of what the South African takes home monthly.

Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) President Ayuba Wabba said labour would soon meet to draw up a timetable within which government would be expected to conclude work on the new wage.

A report containing the resolution of a tripartite committee on a N30, 000 minimum wage was submitted to President Muhammadu Buhari recently.

Wabba, who spoke at the opening ceremony of NLC's yearly Harmattan School in Abuja yesterday, however, declined to reveal the timeline. He hinted that the National Administrative Council of Congress would take a decision during its next deliberation, which might hold next week.

The ILO report finds that in real terms (adjusted for price inflation), global wage growth declined to 1.8 per cent in 2017 from 2.4 per cent in 2016. The findings are based on data from 136 countries.

In analysing wage growth, the report finds that in advanced G20 countries, real wage growth declined from 0.9 per cent in 2016 to 0.4 per cent in 2017. By contrast, in emerging and developing G20 countries, real wage growth fluctuated between 4.9 per cent in 2016 and 4.3 per cent in 2017.

In his reaction to the finding, the Director General of ILO, Guy Ryder, said: "It's puzzling that in high-income economies we see slow wage growth alongside a recovery in GDP growth and falling unemployment. And early indications suggest that slow wage growth continues in 2018.

"Such stagnating wages are an obstacle to economic growth and rising living standards. Countries should explore, with their social partners, ways to achieve socially and economically sustainable wage growth."

The report notes that in the last 20 years, average real wages have almost tripled in emerging and developing G20 countries, while in advanced G20 countries they have increased by just nine per cent.

In many low and middle-income economies, however, wage inequality remains high and wages are frequently insufficient to cover the needs of workers and their families.

The report calculates gender pay gaps in innovative and more accurate ways, using data covering some 70 countries and about 80 per cent of wage employees worldwide.

It also finds that globally, women continue to be paid approximately 20 per cent less than men. "The gender pay gap represents one of today's greatest manifestations of social injustice and all countries should try to better understand what lies behind them and accelerate progress towards gender equality," said Guy Ryder.

The report further finds that in high-income countries, it is at the high end of the pay scale that the gender pay gap is wider; while in low and middle-income countries the gender pay gap is wider among the lower paid workers.

According to econometrician and wage specialist at the ILO and one of the authors of the report, Rosalia Vazquez-Alvarez, "The gender pay gap represents one of today's greatest manifestations of social injustice."

Evidence, according to the report, shows that even before women reach motherhood, there is already a pay gap. This therefore suggests a need to combat stereotypes and discrimination at the point of entry into the labour market

Two Presidents

The Nigerian formern President Olusegun Obasanjo ,PhD GCFR and Olufemi Aduwo ,President/CEO Rights Monitoring Group , Centre for Convention on Democratic integrity Ltd/Gte and Permanent Representative of CCDI to United Nations 

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Women’s contribution to agricultural labour in Africa is estimated to be between 60–80 per cent.

Welcome to 
Voxpopulid

News, News, News

By OSA op-D

Women's contribution to agricultural labour in Africa is estimated to be between 60–80 per cent.

In cross-border trade, women contribute 70 per cent of the revenue in the sub-Saharan region. Female-run enterprises generate much employment, ensure food security, advance livelihoods and reduce poverty. Unfortunately, the importance of female entrepreneurs in Africa is still not sufficiently appreciated, nor are they properly supported.

A  World Bank study  shows Africa has the highest growth rate of female-run businesses in the world – it has this despite the challenges faced in the region, including a lack of influential business networks and limited access to finance. With greater recognition, support, and investment, female entrepreneurship will contribute even more towards the economy. The Graca Machel Trust partnered with Virgin Unite to do just this  –  and together they've designed the 'Women Creating Wealth' programme.

Virgin Unite, Graca Machel

The goal of the programme was to build women's entrepreneurial talents, enterprising skills and awaken motivation and self-belief. Candidates were selected based on three proficiencies: a demonstration of resilience, a minimum of two years' experience in business, and a minimum annual turnover of US$10 000 and maximum of US$100 000. The programme commenced with a six-day foundation course in entrepreneurial competency training – Empretec – pioneered by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). At orientation the following question was asked: Who is holding you back in moving your business to the next level? There were two resounding responses: 'me' and 'other women'.

The 'me' factor came across as a lack confidence, inspiration and skills to access the necessary resources. The latter notion of 'other women' – the 'pull her down syndrome' (PHD) – was interrogated, and a strong case was made for women to unite as a collective and work to accelerate gender equality.

Virgin Unite, Graca Machel

Following the orientation training a six-day capacity building exercise began. Candidates were set the task of building new businesses from scratch – testing entrepreneurial competencies aligned with planning, power and achievement. In the nine months following the six-day programme, competencies were tested and verified in monthly 'AIM' masterclass sessions. Peers, mentors and business coaches held entrepreneurs accountable – helping them set goals, inspiring them, and helping them sharpen their mastery of business principles and core functions of entrepreneurship.

It has been inspirational to hear the stories of change in these businesswomen's attitudes and behaviours. New confidence and grand visions emerged in testimonies of personal triumphs. They also demonstrated greater resilience when weathering harsh economic conditions.

Anne, who runs an energy business from Tanzania, testified: "The WCW programme helped us connect with our divine purpose and the power within rather than doing business only to fend for our families. We identified what truly motivates us and many of us have moved into new areas of business as a result. The ability to be able to look deep within is one of the priceless values of WCW programme".

A shortage of female coaches and mentors led us to challenge the 2016 alumni to coach the 2017 cohort. The 'before' and 'after' transformation was obvious at the graduation. It was as if the lights had been switched on from within, the women glowed and exuded great confidence, energy and professionalism.

Virgin Unite, Graca Machel

We believe with ongoing encouragement and engagements, entrepreneurs will continue to unleash their newly found power and potential to drive prosperous and wealth creating businesses. Graduates have formed strong networks and regularly share information, advice and continue to support and inspire each other.

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Women’s contribution to agricultural labour in Africa is estimated to be between 60–80 per cent.

In cross-border trade, women contribute 70 per cent of the revenue in the sub-Saharan region. Female-run enterprises generate much employment, ensure food security, advance livelihoods and reduce poverty. Unfortunately, the importance of female entrepreneurs in Africa is still not sufficiently appreciated, nor are they properly supported.

A recent study of CCDI lnc commissioned by  World Bank shows Africa has the highest growth rate of female-run businesses in the world – it has this despite the challenges faced in the region, including a lack of influential business networks and limited access to finance. With greater recognition, support, and investment, female entrepreneurship will contribute even more towards the economy. The Graca Machel Trust partnered with Virgin Unite to do just this  –  and together they've designed the 'Women Creating Wealth' programme.

Virgin Unite, Graca Machel

The goal of the programme was to build women's entrepreneurial talents, enterprising skills and awaken motivation and self-belief. Candidates were selected based on three proficiencies: a demonstration of resilience, a minimum of two years' experience in business, and a minimum annual turnover of US$10 000 and maximum of US$100 000. The programme commenced with a six-day foundation course in entrepreneurial competency training – Empretec – pioneered by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). At orientation the following question was asked: Who is holding you back in moving your business to the next level? There were two resounding responses: 'me' and 'other women'.

The 'me' factor came across as a lack confidence, inspiration and skills to access the necessary resources. The latter notion of 'other women' – the 'pull her down syndrome' (PHD) – was interrogated, and a strong case was made for women to unite as a collective and work to accelerate gender equality.

Virgin Unite, Graca Machel

Following the orientation training a six-day capacity building exercise began. Candidates were set the task of building new businesses from scratch – testing entrepreneurial competencies aligned with planning, power and achievement. In the nine months following the six-day programme, competencies were tested and verified in monthly 'AIM' masterclass sessions. Peers, mentors and business coaches held entrepreneurs accountable – helping them set goals, inspiring them, and helping them sharpen their mastery of business principles and core functions of entrepreneurship.

It has been inspirational to hear the stories of change in these businesswomen's attitudes and behaviours. New confidence and grand visions emerged in testimonies of personal triumphs. They also demonstrated greater resilience when weathering harsh economic conditions.

Anne, who runs an energy business from Tanzania, testified: "The WCW programme helped us connect with our divine purpose and the power within rather than doing business only to fend for our families. We identified what truly motivates us and many of us have moved into new areas of business as a result. The ability to be able to look deep within is one of the priceless values of WCW programme".

A shortage of female coaches and mentors led us to challenge the 2016 alumni to coach the 2017 cohort. The 'before' and 'after' transformation was obvious at the graduation. It was as if the lights had been switched on from within, the women glowed and exuded great confidence, energy and professionalism.

Virgin Unite, Graca Machel

We believe with ongoing encouragement and engagements, entrepreneurs will continue to unleash their newly found power and potential to drive prosperous and wealth creating businesses. Graduates have formed strong networks and regularly share information, advice and continue to support and inspire each other.

LET US BE POSITIVE

LET US BE POSITIVE

Attempt to kill by disease in times of war are not new. During the 14th century in Eastern Europe, the corpses of plague victims were catapulted over the walls of a city under siege, in an incident 400 years later. British officers deliberately gave smallpox infected blankets to American Indians at a peace parley during the French and Indian war. This triggered an epidemic that contributed to the Indian surrender. However, it was not until the end of 19th century that it was discovered that microbes cause infectious disease. For more than 25 years, American and former Soviet Union and several other nations, ambitiously pursued the development of biological weapons. In 1972 the nations agreed to ban these weapons. Some countries however, secretly continued development and research, amassing stockpiles of deadly biological agents along with the means to deliver.

What let to the official ban on such weapons are numerous. One reason for this is that their effect is not immediate, it takes time for symptoms to appear, another reason is that their effectiveness depends on fluctuations of wind and weather. One analysis compared the cost of using various weapons to kill unprotected people in an area of one square kilometer, the estimated cost using conventional weapons was put at 2,000 dollars nuclear weapons 800 dollars nerve-gas weapons 600 dollars and biological weapons 1 dollar.

The terrorist groups have experimented with biological weapons. Yet, there is a huge difference between experimenting with biological weapons and launching an effective attack with them.

First, the terrorist organizations have to obtain a sufficiently lethal strain of a disease pathogen,secondly, the storage must be handled correctly and safely and thirdly, ability to produce it in bulk. Tiny amounts of micro-organism are lethal enough to ravage a field of crops, a herd of animals or a city of New York, London or Lagos, assuming the pathogen is delivered precisely to the target. However biological agents do not survive well outside the laboratory. In reality only a fraction of the biological agent would reach the target population, so vastly larger amounts would be needed to launch a catastrophic attack. The need to know how to disperse the pathogen effectively, this involves ensuring that the pathogen is delivered to the target in the right particle size, and in sufficient concentration to cause mass infection.

It took more than ten years for a highly trained team of Americagerm – warfare researchers to produce a reliable bio-weapon delivery system. Once a biological agent has been dispersed into the atmosphere, it is exposed to sunlight and varying temperatures, which can cause the micro-organism to die. Weaponising an agent, therefore calls for detailed knowledge of the behaviour of biological organisms in the air. Considering the array of technological hurdles involved, it is not surprising that few terrorist attacks with biological weapons over the year's produce few casualties. Anthrax laced letters killed five people in the United State, after 11 September 2001 attack.

History is not a clear guide to the future. Though past attacks have largely failed, futures ones may succeed.

Advances in biotechnology are also a matter of concern. Scientists already have the know-how to alter existing pathogens to make them extraordinarily lethal yet easier to handle. They can genetically alter harmless micro-organism to produce toxins. Organisms can also be manipulated so that they will escape standard detection methods. Further, micro-organisms can be designed to resist antibiotics standard vaccines, and therapies. Scientists who defected from the former Soviet Union for example, claimed to have developed a form of plague that was resistant to sixteen antibiotics. Extraordinary weapons of stealth might also be developed in the future. For example, highly specific weapons could disable the immune system itself, rather than being infected with specific diseases. If such lethal AIDS like virus surfaces, who is to know whether the source is a natural mutation or a genetic manipulation concocted in the laboratory of the leaders.

Let us buttress this point with past occurrence of virus disease plague, a highly infectious disease caused by a bacterium. The first signs of the lethal pneumonic plague are fever, headache, weakness and cough. Septic shock will follow, and without early treatment with antibiotics, death is almost certain. The disease passes from person to person through salivia droplets. During the 14th century, within five years plagues killed about 13 million people in Chinaand 30 million in Europe. During the 1950's and 1960's both the United States and former Soviet Union developed techniques to spread pneumonic plague.

Smallpox: a highly infectious disease caused by a virus. Initial symptoms include high fever, fatigue, headaches and backaches. Later, painful lesions appear that become pus filled. One in three victims die. Smallpox was eliminated worldwide in 1977, after many years confirmation that the disease could not be eradicated. The disease spreads from person to person via infected salivia droplets, contaminated clothing or bed linen may also spread the virus.

In 1980, the Soviet Unionlaunched a successful programme to produce larger amounts of smallpox and to adapt it for delivery by intercontinental ballistic missiles. Efforts were also made to develop strains of smallpox that were more virulent and contagious. Anthrax, an infectious disease caused by a spore-forming bacterium, early symptoms of inhalation anthrax may resemble a common cold. After several days, symptoms progress, to severe breathing problems and shock. This form of anthrax is often fatal. In the second half of the 20th century, anthrax was developed as weapon by several countries, including United States and the former Soviet Union. According to one assessment by the United States Government the release of 100 kilograms of aerosolised anthrax over a major city like Lagos, Cairo or New York could be a lethal as a hydrogen bomb.

Botulism is a muscle paralysing disease caused by a toxin – producing bacterium. The symptoms of food-borne botulism include double or blurred vision, dropping eyelid, slurred speech, difficulty swallowing and dry mouth. Paralysis of breathing muscle can cause death. Botulinum toxin is a prime choice as a bio-weapon not only because it is one of the most poisonous substances known but also because it is relatively easy to produce and transport. Several countries are suspected of developing botulinum toxin as a biological weapon. All these symptoms mentioned manifest in HIV/AIDS victim.

Biological warfare refers to the deliberate spreading of disease among humans, animals or plants. Disease occurs when the target population is infected by living micro-organisms. These organisms multiply (some producing toxins). Some biological weapons cause incapacitation other death. Still others can be used to attack and destroy crops.  I hope my fear is not confirm true, that many African Countries where HIV/Aids victims are high also recorded poor planting harvest and serious famine are manipulated by the world leaders rather than sexually abuse. At the beginning of HIV/AIDS existence, the victims figures were high among the American and Europe. Today the Western governments and their press are saying African Countries has 70% of HIV/AIDS victims.

All countries are potentially at risk if organism such as smallpox, plague, anthrax, botulinum and HIV/AIDS are used by the American and Allied forces against any country in nearest future. The effect could prove catastrophic in terms of the resulting illness and deaths compounded by the panic such outbreaks would generate. If the smallpox virus were released today, the majority of the world's population would be defenceless and given the virus 30 percent kill rate, nearly two billion could die. It is a chilling irony; while men or women of brilliance have devoted their lives to the conquest of disease in humans, other with equal zeal and skill have focussed on the conquest of human by means of disease.

The attacks on World Trade Centre in New York and on the Pentagon in Washington D.C in 2001 dramatically showed that there exist ruthless and hate-driven people bent on the mass destruction of human life. Further, the attacks proved that the United States and by extension, every other nation are vulnerable to such attacks. We live in a world where determined terrorist can, in an instant, snuff out the lives of thousand of people. Swiftly following the Sept. 11 attacks, U.S politicians and employees of the news media became the targets of letters containing anthrax, a deadly bacterium people were fearful. Fuelling such fears, the media along with experts speculated that terrorists might attack with pathogens more lethal than anthrax.

Olufemi Aduwo/President/CEO

Rights Monitoring Group , Centre for Convention on Democratic integrity Ltd/Gte & Centre for Convention on Democratic lntegrity lnc Maryland United States(Permanent Representative of CCDI to United Nations).www.rightsgroup.org& www.ccdiltd.org

 

 

House of Reps accused Osinbajo of illegal approval of N5.8bn north-east intervention fund

REPORT OF INVESTIGATIVE HEARING ON THE VIOLATION OF PUBLIC TRUST IN THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY (NEMA) SUBMITTED BY THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON EMERGENCY AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS. HR 52/2018

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Vice President Yemi Osinbajo
PREAMBLE

The House of Representatives in Plenary on Thursday, 15th February, 2018, mandated the Committee on Emergency and Disaster Preparedness to investigate the alleged "Violation of Public Trust in National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA)" and report back to it for further legislative consideration.

In furtherance to the above Resolution contained in the Votes and Proceedings of the House, dated 15th February, 2018, the Committee adopted the following terms of reference to determine the propriety or otherwise of the transactions undertaken and expenditures incurred in the following areas of concern by management of NEMA.

(i) The release of N5,865,671,389.26 and N3,153,000,000.00 as emergency intervention of Food Security to support the population affected by insurgency in the North-East in June 2017 and other releases for the North-East intervention;
(ii) The 6,779 metric tons of rice donated by Chinese government to the internally displaced persons in the North-East;
(iii) Payment of about N800 Million Demurrage on the donated Rice by the Chinese government;
(iv) Over 10 Billion Naira being statutory 20% Ecological Funds released between January 2017 to February 2018 to NEMA;
(v) The Federal Government of Nigeria Flood Intervention in the sum of N1,600,000,000.00 to 16 States in July 2017;
(vi) The over N1.6 Billion released to NEMA for Evacuation of Nigerians stranded in Libya in 2017; and
(vii) Other ancillary issues.

2.0
MODUS OPERANDI

The Committee took the following legislative measures in the course of discharging this assignment:-
(i) The Committee held number of meetings to determine its modus operandi;
(ii) Letters were written to critical stakeholders to elicit their views on the issue under investigation;
(iii) Committee placed adverts in both Print and Electronic Media soliciting for memorandum and sensitizing the Public and stakeholders to the Public Hearing to ensure overall success of the investigation;
(iv) All submissions/documents received at the hearing were objectively scrutinized and analysed for informed findings and recommendations to the House for adoption.

3.0
INVESTIGATIVE PUBLIC HEARING

The Committee conducted investigative hearing on the matter. The well-attended hearing was officially declared open on Wednesday, 21st March, 2018, by His Excellency, the Honourable Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara who was represented by the House Leader, Rt. Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila. The Committee conducted the investigation over a period of three months in 11 Public Sitting with various stakeholders.

Invited stakeholders who made presentations at the hearing were from:
(i) The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA)
(ii) Office of the Accountant General of the Federation
(iii) Federal Ministry of Finance
(iv) Central Bank of Nigeria
(v) Federal Ministry of Budget and National Planning
(vi) Federal Ministry of Agriculture
(vii) Economic and Financial Crimes Commission
(viii) Governing Council of NEMA
(ix) Contractors: –
– Dangote Rice Ltd
– BUA
– WACOT
– Golden Agric Input Ltd.
– Olam Nig. Ltd.
– 3 Brothers Nig. Ltd.
(x) Office of Head of Service of the Federation
(xi) The Nigeria Customs Service
(xii) Nigeria Port Authority
(xiii) MAESK Line Clearing and Forwarding Agents & Transporters
(xiv) APMT & Maresk Line Clearing Agents & Transporter
(xv) SEMA (16 states affected by the flood and 5 out of the 6 states of the North East).
(xvi) CAC
(xvii) PENCOM
(xviii) FIRS
(xix) ITF
(xx) NSITF

4.0
ANALYSIS OF THE SUBMISSIONS

5.0
OBSERVATIONS/FINDINGS

A. DONATION OF 6,779 METRIC TONS OF RICE BY CHINESE GOVERNMENT FOR IDP'S IN THE NORTH EAST.
Committee appraised the submissions made by stakeholders involved in the matter and observed as follows:
– That the Chinese government donated and shipped a total of 6,779 metric tons of rice, that is 271 trucks and approximately 162,696 bags of rice into the country's seaport in June 2017 meant for distribution to IDPs in the North-East as food assistance.
– That the government Agencies namely – Ministry of Budget and National Planning, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance and NEMA were charged with different responsibilities of receiving, clearing, storage, transportation and distribution of the consignments to the IDP's in the North East.
– That more than one year after the goods were donated, there is no evidence that the 6 States of the North East, who are the beneficiaries have received the items.
– Evaluation of the correspondences by the Chinese government on the free donation of the items and responses by the Federal government Agencies confirmed that there was adequate information on the donation, as an Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was entered into by all the parties indicating the role to be played by each Agency. But the rice could not be evacuated over long period of time at the seaport despite written letters by Chinese Government to Ministry of Budget and National Planning after an import waiver had been obtained from Ministry of Finance, informing the Nigerian authorities of the consequences of the delay in clearing the items.
– The Federal Government paid about N800 Million as demurrage to APM terminal and Maersk Line for the consignment due to delay arising from inability and negligence on part of NEMA, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Budget and National Planning to secure the items as at when due.
– APM Terminal provided invoices on the demurrage showing payment by Ministry of Agriculture but NEMA testified it made the payment. NEMA could not however, provide before the Committee evidence of payment to APM terminal but the payment reflected in their account book.
– Ministry of Budget and National Planning was to provide the funding for the clearing, transportation of the rice, handling and logistic charges as agreed in the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Government Agencies.
– Ministry of Agriculture was responsible for providing silos for the storage of the rice.
– The Ministry of Agriculture confirmed to the Committee that no single bag of the consignments was delivered and received from NEMA as at the time of this report.
– Global View Logistics Ltd and Baltic Air and Maritime Services Ltd engaged to clear the rice were not registered contractors with NEMA, the Companies were equally not registered with ITF, NSITF, and PENCOM, as required by existing law, practice and Regulations.
– National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) was saddled with the responsibility of delivering the consignments to different designated silos and to distribute all the 6779 metric tons of the Chinese rice to the IDPs within the 6 States in the North-East in the following proportion:
S/No States
Percentage and Tons Equivalence in Trucks
1 Borno
35% = 2,372.7 M/Tons 79.09 Trucks
2 Yobe
20% = 1355.8 M/Tons 45.1 Trucks
3 Adamawa
15% = 1016.85 M/Tons 33.89 Trucks
4 Gombe
10% = 677.9 M/Tons 22.5 Trucks
5 Bauchi
5% = 339 M/Tons 11.3 Trucks
6 Taraba
5% = 399 M/Tons 11.3 Trucks
7 Kwali FCT
10% = 677.9 M/Tons 22.5 Trucks
TOTAL
225.5 Trucks

Ministry of Finance provided Certificate for Import tax waiver with tax deduction on the consignments donated to Nigeria by Chinese government
The 5 State governments in the North-East except Borno State who did not appear before Committee, denied receiving any single bag of rice from the consignment purported to have been delivered and distributed to the IDPs by NEMA.
– Due to the testimony of the Director of Finance and Accounts (DFA) and some staff of NEMA on payment of demurrage which the management was not comfortable with, NEMA management hurriedly convened a Governing Council meeting of NEMA for the first time in 3 years where it took a decision to suspend the Director of Finance and 5 other staff of the Agency without due process and in flagrant violation of the principle of fair hearing as guaranteed under Section 36 of the 1999 Constitution as amended.
– The suspension took place on 2nd April, 2018 which was the date of the inauguration of the Council Members by the Vice President. This was done within the period of investigation by the Committee, and intended to jeopardise and obstruct the work of the Committee.

B. RECEIPT AND UTILIZATION OF N1.6 BILLION FOR FLOOD VICTIMS IN 16 STATES

FINDINGS:
– NEMA confirmed receiving the sum of N1.6 Billion released to it by the Federal Government as Intervention Fund to purchase food items and other relief materials for distribution to all the 16 States which was affected by the flood disaster in June 2017. The States are: Lagos, Oyo, Edo, Kwara, Ebonyi, Niger, Ekiti, Kebbi, Akwa Ibom, Plateau, Sokoto, Bayelsa, Enugu, Ondo, Abia State and FCT
– The ratio of distribution of the fund for each State is N100,000,000.00.
– The Committee further confirmed that 11 of the States received relief items worth less than N50,000,000.00 each while 5 States received items worth N70,000,000.00 each from NEMA and only received the items in March 2018 when the investigative hearing commenced.
– The relief materials released was an afterthought and not intended to salvage the situation as the disbursement happened 9 months after the flood disaster. Thereby defeating the emergency purpose for which it was meant.
– NEMA could only account for the disbursement of N900 Million to the Sixteen States. The balance of N700 Million could not be accounted for.

C. FUNDS RELEASED FOR EMERGENCY INTERVENTION OF FOOD SECURITY IN THE NORTH-EAST

FINDINGS:
– On the emergency intervention of food security to the North-East to support the population ravaged by insurgency, a sum of N5,865,671,939.26 was approved and released in June 2017 vide a memo raised from the Office of the Acting President, directing the Hon. Minister of Finance and the Accountant General of the Federation to so act. The details further specified a directive to the Governor of CBN from the Ministry of Finance to pay the sum from the Consolidated Revenue Fund Account which the AGF is to raise a mandate for. This is in contravention of approval of NASS on the issuance of Euro Bond from which the Hon. Minister authorized the payment. The Euro Bond is for specified infrastructural projects and not for discretionary intervention. Furthermore, there is no specific appropriation by the National Assembly.

This contravenes Section 80 (4) of the 1999 constitution as amended: which states:
"No money shall be withdrawn from the Consolidated Revenue Fund or any other public fund of the Federation, except in the manner prescribed by the National Assembly".
The money was paid to the following companies for supply of food items to the North East:-
1. Dangote Rice Ltd.
= N936,196,800.00
2. Golden Agric Input Ltd.
= N1,384,554,236.26
3. BUA Rice Ltd.
= N1,322,273,520.00
4. WACOT Ltd.
= N453,674,296.00
5. WACOT Ltd
= N939,946,089.00
6. NEMA
= N829,026,456.00
= N5,865,671,389.26

– Committee noted the flaws and infractions on the authorization granted and removal of such huge sum of money from the Consolidated Revenue Fund Account of the Federation in violation of section 80(2) of the Constitution, Section 16(2) of the Procurement Act and provisions of the Appropriation Act as approval of the Legislature was not sought nor obtained for such expenditure.

– Due process was not followed as taxes and interest accruable to government were not deducted and remitted to the FIRS on the sums released and paid into the accounts of the different corporate entities shown above, this created colossal loss of revenue to the Federal Government.
No meeting of the Federal Executive Council was held approving the contracts to the named companies and the release and crediting of the funds directly into the individual companies and NEMA bank account in blatant violation of approval limit allowed by law.

– It was revealed in the Public Hearing testimonies that Dangote Rice Ltd, WACOT Ltd, BUA Rice Ltd and Golden Agric Input Ltd had earlier received N2billion each from CBN as loan to mop up grains across the country.
– All the 6 States of the North East denied ever receiving this emergency intervention for food security in the North East for which about N5.8b was expended by the Federal Government.

– Out of about N5.8Billion. NEMA got N829,026,456 for logistics and it claimed it spent it as follows, without satisfactory evidence:
(i) General Logistic N369.5 million
(ii) Branding and packaging N189.00 million
(iii) Others (Marketing, Security, tracking and media) N248.6 million
(iv) Contingency N21.9 million

D. RELEASE OF N3,153,000,000.00 TO NEMA FOR FOOD INTERVENTION TO THE NORTH-EAST
FINDING:
– The Committee noted that NEMA released 2.4 Billion Naira to Olam Nigeria Limited to supply 8,000 metric tons of rice, gave 3 Brother Rice Mill Limited the contract to supply 2,000 metric tons of rice at N600,000,000 and N153,160,000 for logistics and transportation of the items, all totaling N3,153,000,000.00.
– Committee observed that Olam Nigeria Limited and 3 Brother Rice Mill Limited were contacted verbally by Ministry of Agriculture to go to NEMA for the jobs without due process.
– The contract award letters issued to Olam Nigeria Limited and 3 Brothers Rice Ltd were all signed by the Ag. Director of Relief and Rehabilitation and not by Director of Procurement in contravention of Public Procurement Act.
– The same Ag. Director of Relief and Rehabilitation who was saddled with the responsibilities of receiving the items and distributing them, signed the award letters without the knowledge of the Procurement Department. This is tantamount to breach of the Procurement Act.
– Evidence before the Committee showed that the World Food Programme (WFP) sought to import and supply 5000 metric tons of rice to the North East, at the rate of N11,500 per bag which is cheaper than the N15,000 per bag offered by local Nigerian millers. However, the Committees findings indicate that the concerned Federal Government agencies namely Federal Ministry of Agriculture and NEMA offered to subsidise the purchase locally, at the same rate of N11,500 to World Food Programme to discourage importation and encourage local production.
– NEMA now claimed to have donated the 5000 metric tons of rice to WFP instead of allowing WFP to purchase same and distribute to the North East. There is no evidence that the WFP received the 5000 metric tons as donation from NEMA, as the approval of N3.1billion was for NEMA to purchase the rice and distribute same to the victims of insurgency in the North East, as WFP did not provide the Committee with such evidence after repeated requests.
– Both companies, Olam Nigeria Ltd and 3 Brothers Rice Mill Ltd, were illegally contracted to carry out the supplies as their profiles showed that they had no PENCOM, FIRS, ITF and NSITF Clearance Certificates in compliance to Section 16 of the Public Procurement Act.
– The data of 3 Brothers Rice Ltd sighted by the Committee did not tally with registration name "Three Brothers Rice Mill Ltd" approved by Corporate Affairs Commission which means NEMA gave contract to a non-existent entity.
Therefore the contract awarded to both Olam and 3 Brothers were in violation of the Procurement Act.

E. EVACUATION OF NIGERIANS FROM LIBYA
FINDINGS
– Committee confirmed that the sum of N1.6Billion was released to NEMA for the evacuation of Nigerians stranded in Libya in year 2017.
– The Committee also discovered that contract awarded under this exercise were inflated.
– In the course of the investigations, the Director-General of NEMA, Eng. Mustapha Yunusa Maihaja, gives account of expenditure as the N1.6Billion to include evacuations, security personnel logistics and local transport.

F. UNACCOUNTED N17,889,050,401 RELEASED FROM ECOLOGICAL FUND TO NEMA

FINDINGS
– The Committee established that 20% of the Statutory Ecological funds are released to the National Emergency Management Agency on monthly basis. This is in compliance with Section 13(2B) of the NEMA Act.
– It was discovered that from January 2017 to May 2018 the total amount released and or received by NEMA is to the tune of N17Billion.
– Furthermore, NEMA incurs expenditure from the fund without going through statutory appropriation approval from the Legislative Arm of Government.
– The Committee noted that the failure of the Governing Council of NEMA to forward the details of the amount released to it to the National Assembly for Appropriation, consideration by the Legislature and passage is a gross violation of the provisions of the Constitution.
– Due process was also not followed by NEMA on the contract sums as the Director General exceeded his approval threshold for both capital and recurrent expenditure. Withholding and Value Added Taxes accruable to government for contracts executed were not remitted to FIRS; thus, resulting to loss of revenue by Government in violation of Section 16 (1&2) of National Emergency Management Act CAP N34 LFN 2004.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS:

1. On the issue of donation of 6,779 metric tons of rice by Chinese Government for IDP's in the North East, the Committee recommends as follows:
(i.) that the House condemns in strong terms the negligence and inefficiency of the Ministry of Budget and National Planning and National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) for the long delay in collection of the donated rice from the Port Terminal.
(ii)
that NEMA and the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Budget and National Planning should account for the 6,779 Metric tons of Rice donated to Nigeria Government for the benefit of IDP's in the 6 States of the North East by the Chinese Government but was never received by the beneficiaries. The ICPC, EFCC and Nigeria Police Force (Police) should conduct further investigation and prosecute where necessary.
(iii)
that the ICPC, EFCC and Police should ensure recovery of the payment of about N800m demurrage from the concerned officers of the Ministry of Budget and National Planning, Ministry of Agriculture and NEMA. They should further investigate the conflicting testimonies of the above agencies and determine whether there was multiple payment transaction for the demurrage.
(iv)
that the suspension of six staff of NEMA by its management is an abuse of power, against the extant public service rules and a gross violation of Section 36 of the 1999 Constitution as amended. It is also a privileged communication under the Legislative Houses (Powers and Privileges) Act, any person that obstructs a witness before a legislative House is also guilty of contempt of parliament.
(v)
It is therefore hereby recommended that the affected staff below be immediately re-instated by NEMA and the appropriate authorities and all their arrears of entitlements paid. They are:
1. Mr. Akinbola Hakeem – Director, Finance and Accounts
2. Alhassan Nuhu – Director Disaster & Risk Reduction
3. Mr. Emenike Umesi –
Ag. Director, Special Duties
4. Mohammed Kanar – Deputy Director Welfare
5. Mr. Mamman Ibrahim – DD Captain of the Air Ambulance
6. Yunusa Deji Ganiyu – Asst. Chief Administrative Officer

2. On the issue of receipt and utilization of N1.6 billion for flood victims in 16 states, the Committee recommends;
(i.) that the House condemns in its entirety the display of insensitivity to the plight of flood victims showed by NEMA management in the handling of the relief materials.
(ii) that the ICPC and EFCC should further investigate the matter and recover the sum of N700m from the Director-General of NEMA, Engr. Mustapha Yunusa Maihaja, who is the Accounting Officer of the Agency.

3. On the issue of funds released for emergency intervention of food security in the north-east, the Committee recommends;

(i.)
that all the government officials involved in the approval, processing, release and diversion of the sum of N5.8billion for the emergency intervention of food security in the North East, which contravened the provisions of S.80(2) and 80(4) of the Constitution, infraction of due process for procurement and loss of government revenue, flouting of the terms of the Eurobond loan are hereby indicted and the relevant Security Agencies should take steps to recover the money from them.
(ii.)
that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) being a banker to the Federal Government should not be involved in giving loans to private companies. Consequently, the N2billion said to be given to four named companies is a fundamental infraction and should be further investigated.

4. On the issue of release of N3,153,000,000.00 to NEMA for food intervention to the North-East, the Committee recommends,
(i.)
that ICPC and EFCC should recover N1,150,000,000.00 being subsidised cost of 5000 metric tons of rice from the present Director General of NEMA, Eng. Mustapha Yunusa Maihaja, who claimed to have donated same to World Food Programme (WFP) when they were ready to pay for it or import same.
(ii.) that in view of the fact that there is evidence that the balance of 5,000 metric tons claimed to have been supplied by Olam Nig. Ltd and 3 Brothers Nig. Ltd at the cost of about N1.5billion to NEMA was not received by the States of the North-East, the money should therefore be recovered from the Director-General, NEMA.
5. On the matter concerning evacuation of Nigerians from Libya, the Committee recommends as follows:
(i.)
that Federal Government should make available adequate funds to the relevant agencies of government for the rehabilitation of those Nigerians evacuated from abroad, in order to prevent them from going back.
(ii.)
that the process, procedure, method and cost of evacuation of Nigerians stranded abroad is opaque and should be made more transparent in order to ensure better accountability.
6. On the question of unaccounted N17,889,050,401 released from Ecological Fund to NEMA, the Committee recommends
(i.) that NEMA should submit through the appropriate authority all the Ecological funds accruing to it yearly to the National Assembly for Appropriation in order to meet the Constitutional requirements.
(ii.) that a comprehensive investigation into the receipt and utilization of 20% Ecological Fund to NEMA over the years be carried out by the House.
7. From the investigation conducted by this Committee it has been established that the Federal Government of Nigeria lost a total sum of over N33 Billion Naira as a result of mismanagement or outright embezzlement of funds occasioned by the actions or inactions of the Managing Director of NEMA, Engr. Mustapha Yunusa Maihaja . It is hereby consequently recommended that the Director General of NEMA, Engr. Mustapha Yunusa Maihaja, be relieved of his duties by Mr President, Commander in Chief, Federal Republic of Nigeria and handed over to relevant authorities for prosecution.

7. CONCLUSION
The Committee expresses its appreciation to the Leadership and Members of the House for the opportunity given to us to serve, as we pledge our unflinching support to the House leadership.