President Putin sent shock waves round the world when he amassed more than 100,000 troops armed to the teeth to surround Ukraine. Beyond his penchant to bully Ukraine and threaten its sovereignty, many of the experts in foreign affairs are yet to unravel the motive behind the build-up of arms and personnel. Was it for fear of Ukraine joining NATO? An online publication reports a former CIA chief, Don Hoffman, as saying: ‘’First of all, NATO membership is a fig leaf. It’s a red herring. Everyone knows Ukraine isn’t joining NATO anytime soon. It takes unanimous consent; France and Germany won’t give that. Putin uses that as a convenient way to frame the narrative for his disinformation propaganda. NATO is a defensive alliance but it represents anything that scares him.’’ Another expert, Chris Miller who is a former US Acting Secretary of Defence does not see the threat as deep-seated in the psyche of Russians. He believes it has some domestic undertones and calculation. He says: “…that is, that the Russians might seek to invade and occupy the portion of Ukraine that would connect Russia via land to Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014 and which contains a critical Russian naval base and port on the Black Sea. I think he’s just going to keep pushing until someone stands up against him, just like the playground.”
Some others think Putin is trying to reaffirm regional dominance and reassert regional influence in the place such that Russia can exercise veto over Ukraine’s foreign policy. It was also to raise tensions so as to squeeze concessions from the United States. The latter on the other hand sees the Russian action as reawakening old rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, and so Russia went full blast militarizing Ukraine with 11 amphibious ships and submarines and 130,000 troops. From the point of view of some other scholars a gas pipeline from Germany to Russia which is called Nord Stream 2 is the issue; it is the cause of the tension. The United States sees the collaboration as a threat capable of weakening its dominant influence in Western Europe in particular. Germans are eagerly expecting the gas supply to quickly come on stream, convinced that it would be cost effective for them. The energy would be cleaner and cheaper. Reports say once the German regulatory authority issues final certification, the supply would start.
It is seen in parts of Western Europe that the United States is opposed to the budding friendship between Germany and Russia. The chummy relationship in the reading of experts would redefine economic, military and social architecture in Western Europe. When there is economic boom in Europe it would affect the value of the Dollar thus considerably whittling down the United States influence in the region. United States panics as its influence on pristine allies is slipping off its fingers. It is, therefore, goading Russia to invade Ukraine and sour the relationship and the gas supply would be put on hold. It is believed it is an orchestration of an alarm to the American public that war was imminent in that region.
An enlightening commentary, authored by Mike Whitney, says: “The Ukraine crisis has nothing to do with Ukraine. It is about Germany and, in particular, a pipeline that connects Germany to Russia…” He adds: “In a world where Germany and Russia are friends and trading partners, there is no need for expensive US-made weapons and missile systems, and no need for NATO. There is also no need to transact energy deals in US Dollars or to stockpile US Treasuries to balance accounts. Transactions between business partners can be conducted in their own currency which is bound to precipitate a sharp decline in the value of the dollar and dramatic shift in economic power.”
The hype and worry, of Russia invading Ukraine in American Establishment does not appear would wane soon as the issue is not seen by the United States as a drive in search of economic opportunities and advantages for one of its allies, Germany. Not even by acclaimed diplomat extra-ordinary, Henry Kissinger who sees the issue other than from the American lenses. Russia, too, lent itself to a war cry with the massive militarization of Ukraine. Kissinger says: “Public discussion on Ukraine is all about confrontation. But do we know where we are going? In my life, I have seen four wars begun with great enthusiasm and public support, all of which we did not know how to end and from three of which we withdrew unilaterally. The test of policy is how it ends and not how it begins. Far too often, the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West. But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other—it should function as a bridge between them.”
What is clear looking at the issue critically is economic interest whether on the part of America or Germany. The United States finds it unsettling that one of its major allies is forging an economic union with Russia which has unwittingly chosen the time to flex its muscles and bare its teeth over Ukraine disguised as military drills. The heavy weaponry displayed was intimidating. Indeed, even the relief that Russia had ordered its troops back to the barracks was giving way to despair as an American official reported that about 7,000 more troops had been added to the 130,000 pack that are stationed at the Ukraine border. The claim by Putin is false, he said. For the United States, in addition to the economic factor, the possibility of it losing influence and its invincibility over Europe is destabilisng to put it mildly. The security council permanent members are undermining United Nations, its appropriate that United Nations should have a standing force. As its now, the sovereignty of Ukraine as a state is undermined and purveyor of the impunity ,Russian government is winning. Like l said, no single bullet would be fired by Russia,Ukraine does not want war either. We must redefined the power of the five security council permanent members.
Olufemi Aduwo
Permanent Representative ,
Centre for Convention on Democratic lntegrity [ CCDI},
A non-governmental organisation in Consultative Status with ECOSOC/United Nations.
